Smyrna, Tennessee 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

497
FXUS64 KOHX 060529
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
1229 AM CDT Sun Jul 6 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1225 AM CDT Sun Jul 6 2025

- Mostly dry and hot through the weekend with widely scattered
  thunderstorms possible during the afternoon.

- Rain and thunderstorms return to middle Tennessee this coming week,
  with chances nearly every day.

- Heat indices will approach or exceed 100 degrees through at
  least mid-week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Monday Night)
Issued at 1024 PM CDT Sat Jul 5 2025

Clouds have mostly cleared out of the area and temperatures have
dropped into the 70s. Things will be mostly quiet overnight with the
potential for patchy dense fog development, especially over areas
that received rain today. A weak shortwave will push just north of
Middle TN tomorrow, mostly bringing a bit more cloud cover to our
northwest counties. Another round of diurnually-driven thunderstorms
will be possible tomorrow as we heat into the mid 90s, however,
large dew points depressions at the surface are noted with very
limited moisture aloft, so most will likely stay dry. Similar to
tonight, patchy dense fog will be likely overnight Sunday into
Monday. Upper-level troughing will continue to push down into the
area come Monday, bringing an increase in rain chances across all
of Middle TN, around 30-50%. Looking at the NAMNest, while
thunderstorms remain scattered, it appears a boundary will be
moving through the area, providing more widespread coverage than
we`ve seen in previous days.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through next Sunday)
Issued at 1024 PM CDT Sat Jul 5 2025

Tuesday is more or less the same setup as Monday with afternoon
storm chances. Model soundings aren`t too impressive in terms of
severe potential with lapse rates and shear remaining low. Bulk
shear is around 15 kts and mid-level lapse rates are ~6 C/km.
There is a considerable amount of CAPE (~2000 J/kg), DCAPE (~850
J/kg), and higher than average PWATs (~1.90"), outlining that the
biggest threat with storms this week will be gusty winds caused by
heavy downpours, frequent lightning, and localized flash
flooding. Wednesday and Thursday will be the best chance of
rain/thunderstorms with the highest rain chances lingering around
40-60%. Point soundings show a little bit more shear building in
during this time, though not enough for a widespread severe
threat, however, a stronger storm or two cannot be ruled out. Near
the end of the work week, a front pushes through, cooling
temperatures off a bit. Into the weekend, expect diurnally-driven
storms, classic summertime activity.

With this week`s highs being in the mid 90s, light winds, and high
PWATs it`s safe to say it will be an uncomfortable week. The heat
index is something to keep an eye on this week as we might come
close to heat advisory criteria (heat index values near 105).

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1225 AM CDT Sun Jul 6 2025

Patchy fog will impact CSV/SRB through 12-13z before VFR
conditions return. There is a low chance (<15%) a terminal is
impacted by a shower or storm after 18z. Storm chances will
decrease after 01z. Winds will generally be around 5 kts or less
prevailing out of the S/SW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      95  74  95  74 /  20  10  40  10
Clarksville    93  73  91  74 /  10  10  60  20
Crossville     88  67  89  68 /  20  10  40  10
Columbia       93  71  93  72 /  10   0  40  10
Cookeville     90  70  90  70 /  10  10  40  10
Jamestown      89  68  89  68 /  10  10  30  10
Lawrenceburg   93  71  92  71 /  10   0  40  10
Murfreesboro   94  71  94  72 /  20   0  40  10
Waverly        93  71  91  72 /  10  10  50  20

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Baggett
LONG TERM....LC
AVIATION.....Reagan